Sarasota, Manatee voters deal a blow to grassroots candidates in primary

Voters across the Suncoast dealt a blow to grassroots challengers Tuesday night, while rewarding the establishment-backed candidates — including some who campaigned as outsiders themselves.

With few exceptions, the results marked a staggering reversal from 2024, when voter anger over flooding and rapid development fueled a wave of underdog victories over candidates backed by powerful developer interests across Sarasota and Manatee counties.

Among the biggest casualties was Sarasota County District 4 Commissioner Joe Neunder, a chiropractor by trade, who lost to challenger Jim DeNiro. The retired police sergeant positioned himself as a grassroots alternative while taking developer donations and benefiting from an aggressive, heavily funded campaign attacking Neunder’s record.

In Manatee County, incumbent commissioners Amanda Ballard and Mike Rahn both cruised to easy victories, winning by more than 30 percentage points each over their challengers. 

Even in statewide races, grassroots enthusiasm failed to translate at the ballot box. Matt Taylor, who amassed a sizable social media following as “Matt The Welder,” was soundly defeated by incumbent Commissioner of Agriculture Wilton Simpson, who won more than twice as many votes statewide.

Establishment candidates also dominated local legislative races, with current Republican state Rep. James Buchanan easily defeating former Sarasota Memorial Hospital board member Vic Rohe for an open state Senate seat and incumbent Republican state Rep. Bill Conerly turning back slow-growth challenger John “Captain” Phillips. 

Developer-linked candidates prevailed in several closely watched Manatee County Commission races, as well.

But the results weren’t uniform. District 2 Sarasota County Commissioner Mark Smith survived an aggressive challenge by political newcomer Christina Sargent, who, like DeNiro, benefited from an aggressive anonymous campaign aimed at unseating the incumbent. 

And in Sarasota’s nonpartisan city races, neighborhood-aligned incumbents and candidates largely held their ground.

The only grassroots candidate to advance to the general election in Manatee County was Elizabeth Arnold. She survived a crowded field of Republican candidates and will face write-in candidate Jack D. May Jr. in November. 

Andra Griffin, a Manatee County resident and self-described conservative activist who traveled the country attending President Donald Trump’s rallies, said she will now vote for a Democrat after the grassroots defeats on Tuesday.

“We’re going to be a mess,” she said. “I’m moving out of here by 2028. I’m done with this place.” 

Because the majority of the state — including both Sarasota and Manatee counties — is solidly Republican, the GOP primaries often put winning candidates on a clear path to victory in the November general election.

Glenn Compton, the chairman of the environmental nonprofit Manasota-88, has been advocating for more wetlands protection and monitoring local development rules for decades. With the outcome of Tuesday’s primaries, he said he doesn’t expect much change given who won their various races.

“Regardless of who wins, the development community is going to have influence on future decisions that are made,” he said. “I don’t see that changing.”

Neunder ousted, Smith hangs on to seat for Sarasota County Commission

Jim DeNiro ended Neunder’s bid for a second term after a contentious, mudslinging GOP primary where both candidates accused the other of being backed by developers.

DeNiro, a former longtime officer with the Sarasota Police Department, was outraised by Neunder, but was able to both campaign as a political outsider while enjoying support from the local Republican establishment. He criticized the county government for huge budget increases in recent years and told Suncoast Searchlight he wanted to stop development east of Interstate 75.

However, he also received major support from the Willis A. Smith construction company, a major county contractor whose CEO is DeNiro’s brother-in-law.

Suncoast Searchlight was unable to reach DeNiro for comment Tuesday evening.

Neunder had come out strongly in favor of a moratorium on hyperscale data centers and was sued personally by developers for his opposition to Florida’s Live Local Act. However, he also voted earlier in his term in favor of Pat Neal’s massive 3H Ranch development and joined other commissioners in clashes against nonprofit groups in 2024.

DeNiro will be the favorite over Democrat Julie London in November to represent Sarasota County’s District 4, which covers the city of Venice.

In District 2, Commissioner Mark Smith earned another four years behind the dais after outraising his opponent, Kristina Sargent, by nearly $100,000 and then winning by 7 percentage points.

District 2 envelops the city of Sarasota and the northern tip of Siesta Key.

Sargent, a newcomer to local politics, ran against the county’s budget increases over the past several years and failure to prepare for the 2024 storm season that flooded several neighborhoods.

Since there was no Democrat in the race, Smith’s primary victory guaranteed him a second term. 

On Tuesday night, he addressed the use of AI by anonymous political operatives against him and Neunder, calling for more regulation in the future.

“This is a real warning shot, and unfortunately the result may be that the good people who want to run for office because they want to make things better, will think twice,” he told Suncoast Searchlight. “They can show you dancing with the devil and you can deny it all you want, and then it’s your word against AI.”

Sarasota neighborhood groups see favored candidates advance in commission race

With two seats on the Sarasota City Commission up for grabs, incumbent Jen Ahearn-Koch and neighborhood advocate Flo Entler ran on similar platforms and relied on the same base of support.

Both also assured themselves a spot in the November runoff election by finishing head and shoulders above the other three candidates.

They will be joined by John Harshman, a semi-retired Sarasota real estate broker who came in third. The three will now compete for the two citywide seats. 

Although the city commission seats are nonpartisan positions, Ahearn-Koch and Entler were both endorsed by the Democratic Party. Harshman was endorsed by the Republican Party alongside Rob Rominiecki, who finished in fourth. Yevgeny Khodorkovsky, a last-minute entry into the race, finished last.

Ahearn-Koch won 15 of the city’s 16 precincts in her resounding bid for a third term. She picked up more votes than Harshman and Rominiecki combined and seems a heavy favorite to win reelection in November. 

The incumbent ran on a similar platform of affordability and controlled growth as Entler, who is the president of the Arlington Park Neighborhood Association. Entler outpaced Harshman by about 11 percentage points, despite being outraised by $16,513. She ran against overdevelopment and said the city commission has not been responsive to residents.

Harshman won one precinct, on Siesta Key, where he beat Entler by just eight votes. 

The three finalists are vying to sit on a city commission that will decide on momentous issues for Sarasota, including a potential new sound ordinance and master plan for downtown, a decision on how to handle Sarasota’s parking shortfall, whether taxpayers will foot an $88 million bill for a new performing arts center, and debates over real estate development.

Derek Gilliam is an investigative/watchdog reporter and Christian Casale is a local government and politics reporter for Suncoast Searchlight. Email them at derek@suncoastsearchlight.org and christian@suncoastsearchlight.org.