Despite months of warnings from local government officials that a proposed property tax cut could force deep cuts to public services, Florida voters passed Amendment 3 on Tuesday, forcing leaders across the Suncoast to make tough decisions in the coming years.

“It’s really just very disappointing that this is going to happen,” Sarasota City Commissioner Liz Alpert said Tuesday night as election results rolled in and it became clear the measure would pass. 

“I think it is going to be really disastrous for cities and counties across the state,” she said. 

But the results also reflected widespread frustration over the rising cost of living, including housing, insurance and property taxes, as well as concerns about government spending. 

For homeowners struggling with mounting expenses, the promise of property tax relief seemed like a good deal no matter what the cost to local governments.

“People are angry,” Manatee County Commissioner Tal Siddique told Suncoast Searchlight. “They’re angry with the cost of living. They’re angry with the amount of money that their government is spending. We’re going to take that order to heart.”

An unlikely coalition of elected officials, nonprofit leaders, policy experts, civic organizations and law-enforcement representatives had warned of dire consequences if voters approved the ballot measure. Local governments across Sarasota, Manatee and DeSoto counties alone were projected to lose a combined $1.6 billion over five years.

Their warnings failed to stop voters from approving the measure, which was a major priority for outgoing Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

With 95% of votes counted Tuesday night, Amendment 3 had received 62% of the vote statewide, clearing the 60% required to pass. On the Suncoast, support reached about 63% in Sarasota County, 65% in Manatee County and 64% in DeSoto County.

Amendment 3 will dramatically reduce property taxes for homeowners by increasing the homestead exemption for non-school taxes from $50,000 to $150,000 next year before jumping to $250,000 in 2028. It also will cut in half the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead properties and restrict how cities and counties can spend property tax revenue.

In Sarasota County, the average homeowner is expected to save about $700 a year by 2028. In Manatee County, the savings would amount to about $1,200, while DeSoto County homeowners would save about $1,400 a year. 

State economists have projected those changes would reduce local government property tax collections across Florida by $12 billion after 2028. Those reductions will impact communities’ ability to fund things like public services, parks, roads, libraries and other services. And they will force local governments to figure out how to absorb the losses — whether by cutting spending, delaying projects or finding other sources of revenue.

“It’s going to be tough, and I think people are going to have to get used to a different level of service,” Siddique said. “It’s not going to be pretty, but it’s something we are going to have to work on.”

For months, opponents had sounded the alarm. North Port’s fire chief drove to Tallahassee to make an impassioned plea to state lawmakers. Local sheriffs said the measure would effectively defund the police. Even some Republican legislators who voted to put the measure on the ballot decried its potential impact on the kinds of routine services residents have come to expect.

An independent statewide research institute projected Sarasota County would face shortfalls of $241 million over the first two years alone.

The Manatee County Sheriff’s Office said it would lose more than $50 million by the 2028 budget cycle, when the amendment’s provisions are fully enacted.

The city of Sarasota projected a loss of $5.6 million to its general fund, but had not fully calculated its impact on other parts of the budget.

The impact on DeSoto County, home to about 35,000 residents, will be felt greater than in some areas where a larger, wealthy tax base will spread out the impact.

“We don’t have that many million-dollar homes in DeSoto County,” said Elton Langford, a DeSoto County commissioner. “It’s going to itch a little bit, but at the end of the day we will figure it out.”

Property taxes pay for a large portion of what local municipalities do, covering officials’ salaries, paying for road construction, mosquito control and funding law enforcement.

Holly Bullard, a policy expert with the Florida Policy Institute who lives in Sarasota, said she hopes that local officials can increase revenues to stave off deep cuts.

“My worry is there is not enough political will,” she said. “Floridians must push to save the services that families rely on.”

This could now require elected officials to make difficult decisions about delaying large projects or even laying off government workers. It could also have sweeping ramifications on their ability to take out bonds to fund new projects.

The impact on budgets across the state will be immediate. The Revenue Estimating Conference, a panel of state economists and legislative officials that analyzes the financial impact of state laws on government revenues, predicted a $4.95 billion shortfall on non-school property taxes across the state in just the first year.

That is projected to increase to $11.86 billion by fiscal year 2031-32, resulting in a cumulative loss of $45.8 billion to local governments like cities, counties, water management districts and other services that derive funding through levies on property in just the first five years.

Sarasota County Commissioner Tom Knight said he’s going to start acting like the government is in a recession during the next budget cycle.

“I’m certain we won’t be filling positions,” he said, “and possibly, laying people off.”